Researching drinks trends without chasing fads

What counts as a trend

Three tests. Does it last, meaning it persists across more than one season or festival cycle? Does it spread, appearing in several cities or channels and not only one scene? And does it repeat, with people buying it a second time? A drink that wins attention but not a second purchase is a fad.

Treat the order of these as a funnel. Many things are noticed. Few are repurchased.

Sources worth reading

Mix sources because each has a blind spot.

• Your own sales and taproom data. The most reliable source you have.
• Conversations with retailers and bar managers, who see what moves.
• Search interest tools, which show relative interest over time and not volume. Read the shape of the line, not the number.
• Menus and shelves in other cities, collected on a visit or from public listings.
• Trade publications and brewing association material, read with the question of how the author knows.

Social media shows what people post about, which is not always what they buy.

Separate the signal from the noise

Be careful with lists of trends from consultancies or marketing blogs. Many are written to attract clients and give no method. If a claim has no source or method, treat it as an opinion.

Also beware survivor bias. You see the brands that did well with a new style, not the dozen that tried and quietly stopped. Ask what happened to people who tried it and failed.

Test small before you commit

A pilot batch is a cheap experiment. On a 5 hectolitre system, a single batch of a new style is a modest risk, while a full-scale launch is not. Release it as a limited taproom pour and record what sells, what comes back as repeat orders and what customers say. Pair it with a taste panel if you want a quick read.

Set a rule before you start: for example, if it is not among the top sellers by its fourth week, it does not return. Rules set in advance stop wishful thinking.

Fit matters more than fashion

A trend is only useful if it fits your brewery, your buyers and your climate. A style that needs cold storage you do not have, ingredients you cannot source or a price your customers will not pay is not a trend for you.

In a hot climate, light and refreshing styles often have a natural advantage, which is why they keep reappearing. That is a pattern worth more than a passing flavour. See craft beer in India.

A short worked example

Suppose several people tell you that a sour style is rising. Check it. Is it on menus in more than one city? Does your own taproom data show anyone asking? Search interest might show seasonal peaks that return each summer, which suggests something steady and not a one-time spike.

Then run the small test. Brew one batch, sell it for four weeks and look at repeat purchases. If the style sells but people rarely return for a second glass, you have found curiosity and not loyalty. If it holds a place on your list through the cooler months, you have something to build on.

Where a trend survives these checks and fits your brewery, give it a proper place in your plan and budget. Where it does not, note it and move on without regret.

Questions to ask before you follow a trend

• Who is buying it and are they my customers?
• Can I make it well with my equipment and skills?
• Does it fit my price band and my cold storage?
• What is my plan if it fades in six months?
• What would I stop making to make room?

The last question is the one people skip. Tank space is limited. Every fermenter filled with a fad is one not filled with a core beer that pays the rent.

Write the answers down. A page of honest answers, kept with the date, is the cheapest piece of research you will do this year. It makes the next decision quicker.

Keep a trend log

Once a quarter, write down what you saw, what you tried and what happened. Over a year it becomes your own evidence of which signals predicted sales in your market. That beats any list you can buy.

Common questions

How do I know if search interest means demand?

Search interest shows relative attention, not purchases. Use it as one signal and check it against sales and shelf data.

Should I follow every new style?

No. Choose the few that fit your skills, equipment and buyers. Test them in small batches.

Is it a trend if a famous brand launches it?

A large launch brings attention, not proof of repeat buying. Watch how it does after the launch period.